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001-es BibID:	BIBFORM002364
Első szerző:	Tar Károly (klimatológus)
Cím:	Statistical Estimation of Diurnal Average Potential Windpower / Károly Tar, Teodor Maghiar, Károly Bondor, Sándor Szegedi
Dátum:	2007
Megjegyzések:	Potential wind power for a given period (e. g. a day) can be determined from wind speed data measured at definite hours of the period. Obviously, the sum of the cubes of measured wind speeds depends on the number of the measurements. That kind of dependence can be decreased in two ways: by determining the mean or the relative wind energy of a given point of time within a given period. The method of sliding averages uses both before mentioned techniques. The principle of the method is the estimation of a given hourly average wind speed cube of a day from wind speeds measured until any hour of that day. The cube of the wind speed is in proportion with the total diurnal potential and produced wind energy of the day. Establishment of such a model requires long time series of wind speed measurements which are available only for the weather stations in Hungary, where hourly mean winds speeds are registered only. For this reason statistics required for the model were calculated from different subsets of ten years long hourly mean wind speed series of three Hungarian weather stations (Szombathely, Budapest-Lőrinc and Debrecen). Using those statistics and hourly wind speed data measured in the vicinity of the wind turbine/on the wind turbine itself, the model is able to give hourly estimations for the potential wind energy of the whole day for the seasons or for circulation type groups. Software fitted to the model is presented here also. On the base of the results the sliding average model (SLIDAV) makes possible to forecast the average diurnal wind power 6-9 hours before the end of the day already, with an error of 20 %. The measure of error of estimation depends on the seasons and/or synoptic type groups. Results gained this way might provide important information for the owners of wind turbines: the diurnal amount of wind energy can be determined this way. On this base the owner can decide whether to keep the turbine in operation the whole day, or to stop it for maintenance for example.
Tárgyszavak:	Természettudományok Földtudományok előadáskivonat
Megjelenés:	Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Engineering of Modern Electric System. - p. 86-90.
További szerzők:	Maghiar, Teodor Bondor Károly Szegedi Sándor (1970-) (klimatológus)
Internet cím:	elektronikus változat
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