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001-es BibID:BIBFORM078818
Első szerző:Baran Sándor (matematikus, informatikus)
Cím:Statistical post-processing of dual-resolution ensemble forecasts / Sándor Baran, Martin Leutbecher, Marianna Szabó, Zied Ben Bouallègue
Dátum:2019
ISSN:0035-9009 1477-870X
Megjegyzések:The computational cost as well as the probabilistic skill of ensemble forecasts depends on the spatial resolution of the numerical weather prediction model and the ensemble size. Periodically, e.g. when more computational resources become available, it is appropriate to reassess the balance between resolution and ensemble size. Recently, it has been proposed to investigate this balance in the context of dual-resolution ensembles, which use members with two different resolutions to make probabilistic forecasts. This study investigates whether statistical post-processing of such dual-resolution ensemble forecasts changes the conclusions regarding the optimal dual-resolution configuration. Medium-range dual-resolution ensemble forecasts of 2 m temperature have been calibrated using ensemble model output statistics. The forecasts are produced with ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System and have horizontal resolutions between 18 and 45 km. The ensemble sizes range from 8 to 254 members. The forecasts are verified with SYNOP station data. Results show that score differences between various single- and dual-resolution configurations are strongly reduced by statistical post-processing. Therefore, the benefit of some dual-resolution configurations over single-resolution configurations appears to be less pronounced than for raw forecasts. Moreover, the ranking of the ensemble configurations can be affected by the statistical post-processing.
Tárgyszavak:Műszaki tudományok Informatikai tudományok idegen nyelvű folyóiratközlemény külföldi lapban
statisztikai utófeldolgozás
valószínűségi időjárás előrejelzés
Megjelenés:Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. - 145 : 721 (2019), p. 1705-1720. -
További szerzők:Leutbecher, Martin Szabó Marianna (1995-) (programtervező informatikus) Ben Bouallègue, Zied
Pályázati támogatás:EFOP-3.6.3-VEKOP-16-2017-00002
EFOP
NKFIH NN125679
egyéb
Internet cím:DOI
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